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Life expectancy estimates
Every patient experiences cirrhosis differently. Some of them are asymptomatic for many years. Others develop very mild symptoms. In these cases, they have compensated cirrhosis because other body functions are compensating for their liver problems. So, life expectancy in these patients is sometimes very long. After cirrhosis is diagnosed in one of these patients, they are very likely to stay alive after 10 or more years.
Decompensated cirrhosis is an entirely different story. These patients do not only have symptoms but may also develop one or more complications. This is where a combination of CTP score and MELD score help measuring life expectancy. If the patient has a build-up of fluid in the abdomen, high levels of bilirubin, low albumin levels, clotting problems, neurologic or cognitive issues, their life expectancy is likely to be lower than 10 years.
- Patients with 5 or 6 points: They belong to class A in the CTP score, and their 2-year survival rate is very high (90%)
- Patients with 7 to 9 points: They belong to class B in the CTP score, and their 2-year survival rate goes down to 70%. But 80% of these patients are still living after 1 year.
- Patients with 10 or more points: They belong to class C in the CTP score, and their 2-year survival rate is very low (38%). Almost half of these patients survive after 1 year, and a little more than half (59%) survive after 3 months.
In class C patients, the MELD score gives more insight on the survival after 3 months.
- MELD score lower than 9: These patients are very likely to survive after 3 months, and less than 2% of them die in this period.
- MELD score in the range of 10 to 19: Only 6% of these patients die in 3 months. The rest continue living and sometimes reach 1 year or more.
- MELD score in the range of 20 to 29: Approximately 1 out of 4 patients with this score would die in 3 months if they don’t receive a transplant.
- MELD score in the range of 30 to 39: More than half of patients with this score would die in 3 months if they don’t receive a transplant.
- MELD score higher than 40: This is the worst prognosis. Only 1 in 4 patients survive after 3 months. The mortality is higher than 71%.
